Question

Conditional on New START being renewed or replaced by another similar treaty after February 2026, will there be a nuclear exchange between Russia and the US by 2035?

1 comment1

Total Forecasters15

Community Prediction3.6% (1.4% - 5%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 3.6%

Authors:

havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Arms Control Association

United States

New START

Russia

Just Say No to Nuclear War

American Conservative•Jan 17, 2025

The Risk of Nuclear War Is Rising as the Use of Nukes Is No Longer Unthinkable

PJ Media•Jan 15, 2025

Biden's nuke chief pushes back on calls for new arms race with Russia, China

USA Today•Jan 17, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Conditional on New START not being renewed or replaced by another similar treaty after February 2026, will there be a nuclear exchange between Russia and the US by 2035?

3.9%

Will the New START nuclear arms control agreement be renewed until at least February 5, 2027?

45%

If there's a US-Russia war by 2050, when will it start?

2032-06-10

Comments

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Authors:

havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Arms Control Association

United States

New START

Russia

Just Say No to Nuclear War

American Conservative•Jan 17, 2025

The Risk of Nuclear War Is Rising as the Use of Nukes Is No Longer Unthinkable

PJ Media•Jan 15, 2025

Biden's nuke chief pushes back on calls for new arms race with Russia, China

USA Today•Jan 17, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Conditional on New START not being renewed or replaced by another similar treaty after February 2026, will there be a nuclear exchange between Russia and the US by 2035?

3.9%

Will the New START nuclear arms control agreement be renewed until at least February 5, 2027?

45%

If there's a US-Russia war by 2050, when will it start?

2032-06-10