Question

Conditional on New START being renewed or replaced by another similar treaty after February 2026, will there be a nuclear exchange between Russia and the US by 2035?

1 comment1

Total Forecasters16

Community Prediction3.6%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 3.6%

median 3.6%mean 3.6%

Authors:

havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Arms Control Association

United States

New START

Russia

Conditional on New START not being renewed or replaced by another similar treaty after February 2026, will there be a nuclear exchange between Russia and the US by 2035?

3.9%

Will the New START nuclear arms control agreement be renewed until at least February 5, 2027?

43%

If there's a US-Russia war by 2050, when will it start?

2032-06-14

Comments

? comments

Authors:

havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Arms Control Association

United States

New START

Russia

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Conditional on New START not being renewed or replaced by another similar treaty after February 2026, will there be a nuclear exchange between Russia and the US by 2035?

3.9%

Will the New START nuclear arms control agreement be renewed until at least February 5, 2027?

43%

If there's a US-Russia war by 2050, when will it start?

2032-06-14