Question

Conditional on New START being renewed or replaced by another similar treaty after February 2026, will there be a nuclear exchange between Russia and the US by 2035?

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Total Forecasters15

Community Prediction3.6% (1.4% - 5%)

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50%

community: 3.6%

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Authors:

havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Arms Control Association

United States

New START

Russia

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Conditional on New START not being renewed or replaced by another similar treaty after February 2026, will there be a nuclear exchange between Russia and the US by 2035?

3.9%

Will the New START nuclear arms control agreement be renewed until at least February 5, 2027?

43%

If there's a US-Russia war by 2050, when will it start?

2032-06-10

Comments

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Authors:

havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Arms Control Association

United States

New START

Russia

Does Putin's New 'Oreshnik' Missile Transform Rules of Nuclear Warfare?

Newsweek•Dec 13, 2024

Putin Reveals When Russia May Use Nuclear Weapons Under New Doctrine

Newsweek•Dec 19, 2024

Can Trump Resolve the North Korea Conundrum?

American Conservative•Dec 17, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Conditional on New START not being renewed or replaced by another similar treaty after February 2026, will there be a nuclear exchange between Russia and the US by 2035?

3.9%

Will the New START nuclear arms control agreement be renewed until at least February 5, 2027?

43%

If there's a US-Russia war by 2050, when will it start?

2032-06-10

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Conditional on New START being renewed or replaced by another similar treaty after February 2026, will there be a nuclear exchange between Russia and the US by 2035?

Make a Prediction

Conditional on New START not being renewed or replaced by another similar treaty after February 2026, will there be a nuclear exchange between Russia and the US by 2035?

Will the New START nuclear arms control agreement be renewed until at least February 5, 2027?

If there's a US-Russia war by 2050, when will it start?

Comments

Conditional on New START not being renewed or replaced by another similar treaty after February 2026, will there be a nuclear exchange between Russia and the US by 2035?

Will the New START nuclear arms control agreement be renewed until at least February 5, 2027?

If there's a US-Russia war by 2050, when will it start?

Conditional on New START not being renewed or replaced by another similar treaty after February 2026, will there be a nuclear exchange between Russia and the US by 2035?

Will the New START nuclear arms control agreement be renewed until at least February 5, 2027?

If there's a US-Russia war by 2050, when will it start?

Conditional on New START not being renewed or replaced by another similar treaty after February 2026, will there be a nuclear exchange between Russia and the US by 2035?

Will the New START nuclear arms control agreement be renewed until at least February 5, 2027?

If there's a US-Russia war by 2050, when will it start?