Question

Will a non-state actor have acquired a nuclear weapon from a state by 2030?

no comments0

Total Forecasters41

Community Prediction1.9%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 1.9%

median 1.9%mean 3.9%

Authors:

havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Military science

Environmental science

International Atomic Energy Agency

Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant

Dirty bomb

Nuclear fission

Will a non-state actor develop their own nuclear weapon by 2030?

Will a non-test nuclear detonation by a non-state actor cause at least one fatality by 2030?

3.5%

If an offensive state nuclear detonation occurs by 2050, will the first detonation be inadvertent?

21.9%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Military science

Environmental science

International Atomic Energy Agency

Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant

Dirty bomb

Nuclear fission

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Conflicts of Interest: Could Ukraine Try to Make Nukes?

AntiWar•Nov 18, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will a non-state actor develop their own nuclear weapon by 2030?

Will a non-test nuclear detonation by a non-state actor cause at least one fatality by 2030?

3.5%

If an offensive state nuclear detonation occurs by 2050, will the first detonation be inadvertent?

21.9%