Question

Will a non-state actor have acquired a nuclear weapon from a state by 2030?

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Total Forecasters40

Community Prediction1.9% (1% - 4%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 1.9%

Authors:

havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Nov 18, 2021

Closes:

Dec 31, 2029

Scheduled resolution:

Dec 31, 2029

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Military science

Environmental science

International Atomic Energy Agency

Nuclear terrorism

Nuclear proliferation

Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant

The Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons Provides a Way to Avert Nuclear Catastrophe

OpEdNews•Jan 28, 2025

The Doomsday Clock reset comes Tuesday: How worried should we be?

USA Today•Jan 28, 2025

Iranian Dissident Group Exposes Regime’s ‘Intensified’ Nuclear Detonation Efforts, Warns of Rapid Dash Toward Bomb

Breitbart•Jan 29, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will a non-state actor develop their own nuclear weapon by 2030?

Will a non-test nuclear detonation by a non-state actor cause at least one fatality by 2030?

If an offensive state nuclear detonation occurs by 2050, will the first detonation be inadvertent?

21.9%

Comments

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Authors:

havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Nov 18, 2021

Closes:

Dec 31, 2029

Scheduled resolution:

Dec 31, 2029

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Military science

Environmental science

International Atomic Energy Agency

Nuclear terrorism

Nuclear proliferation

Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant

The Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons Provides a Way to Avert Nuclear Catastrophe

OpEdNews•Jan 28, 2025

The Doomsday Clock reset comes Tuesday: How worried should we be?

USA Today•Jan 28, 2025

Iranian Dissident Group Exposes Regime’s ‘Intensified’ Nuclear Detonation Efforts, Warns of Rapid Dash Toward Bomb

Breitbart•Jan 29, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will a non-state actor develop their own nuclear weapon by 2030?

Will a non-test nuclear detonation by a non-state actor cause at least one fatality by 2030?

If an offensive state nuclear detonation occurs by 2050, will the first detonation be inadvertent?

21.9%