Question

Will a non-state actor have acquired a nuclear weapon from a state by 2030?

no comments0

Total Forecasters41

Community Prediction2% (1% - 4%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 2%

Authors:

havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Nov 18, 2021

Closes:

Dec 31, 2029

Scheduled resolution:

Dec 31, 2029

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Military science

Environmental science

International Atomic Energy Agency

Nuclear terrorism

Nuclear proliferation

Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant

Hysteria After IAEA Issues Quarterly Report on Iran’s Uranium Enrichment

AntiWar•Feb 28, 2025

Trump's Iran Problem Just Got Worse As Israel Threatens to Stop Tehran From Going Nuclear

PJ Media•Mar 1, 2025

North Korea could have more nukes than the UK by 2035 and may already have the ability to detonate a nuclear weapon over a US city, analysts warn

Daily Mail•Mar 5, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will a non-state actor develop their own nuclear weapon by 2030?

Will a non-test nuclear detonation by a non-state actor cause at least one fatality by 2030?

If an offensive state nuclear detonation occurs by 2050, will the first detonation be inadvertent?

21%

Comments

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Authors:

havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Nov 18, 2021

Closes:

Dec 31, 2029

Scheduled resolution:

Dec 31, 2029

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Military science

Environmental science

International Atomic Energy Agency

Nuclear terrorism

Nuclear proliferation

Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant

Hysteria After IAEA Issues Quarterly Report on Iran’s Uranium Enrichment

AntiWar•Feb 28, 2025

Trump's Iran Problem Just Got Worse As Israel Threatens to Stop Tehran From Going Nuclear

PJ Media•Mar 1, 2025

North Korea could have more nukes than the UK by 2035 and may already have the ability to detonate a nuclear weapon over a US city, analysts warn

Daily Mail•Mar 5, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will a non-state actor develop their own nuclear weapon by 2030?

Will a non-test nuclear detonation by a non-state actor cause at least one fatality by 2030?

If an offensive state nuclear detonation occurs by 2050, will the first detonation be inadvertent?

21%