Question

Will a non-state actor develop their own nuclear weapon by 2030?

34 comments34

Total Forecasters117

Community Prediction1% (0.5% - 2%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 1%

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Authors:

havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Nuclear winter

Project Sapphire

Al-Qaeda

Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant

Dirty bomb

Nuclear weapon

Environmental science

Nuclear proliferation

Nuclear terrorism

Iran’s Next Move Is Playing the Nuclear Card

PJ Media•Dec 14, 2024

Despite Talk of a ‘Nuclear Leap,’ Little About Iran’s Enrichment Program Has Changed

AntiWar•Dec 14, 2024

Takeaways from the AP’s reporting on nuclear bunkers

Associated Press•Dec 17, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will a non-state actor have acquired a nuclear weapon from a state by 2030?

1.9%

Will a non-test nuclear detonation by a non-state actor cause at least one fatality by 2030?

3.5%

If an offensive state nuclear detonation occurs by 2050, will the first detonation be inadvertent?

21.9%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Nuclear winter

Project Sapphire

Al-Qaeda

Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant

Dirty bomb

Nuclear weapon

Environmental science

Nuclear proliferation

Nuclear terrorism

Iran’s Next Move Is Playing the Nuclear Card

PJ Media•Dec 14, 2024

Despite Talk of a ‘Nuclear Leap,’ Little About Iran’s Enrichment Program Has Changed

AntiWar•Dec 14, 2024

Takeaways from the AP’s reporting on nuclear bunkers

Associated Press•Dec 17, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will a non-state actor have acquired a nuclear weapon from a state by 2030?

1.9%

Will a non-test nuclear detonation by a non-state actor cause at least one fatality by 2030?

3.5%

If an offensive state nuclear detonation occurs by 2050, will the first detonation be inadvertent?

21.9%

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Will a non-state actor develop their own nuclear weapon by 2030?

Make a Prediction

Will a non-state actor have acquired a nuclear weapon from a state by 2030?

Will a non-test nuclear detonation by a non-state actor cause at least one fatality by 2030?

If an offensive state nuclear detonation occurs by 2050, will the first detonation be inadvertent?

Comments

Will a non-state actor have acquired a nuclear weapon from a state by 2030?

Will a non-test nuclear detonation by a non-state actor cause at least one fatality by 2030?

If an offensive state nuclear detonation occurs by 2050, will the first detonation be inadvertent?