Question

Will a non-state actor develop their own nuclear weapon by 2030?

34 comments34

Total Forecasters117

Community Prediction1% (0.5% - 2%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 1%

Authors:

havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Nov 18, 2021

Closes:

Dec 31, 2029

Scheduled resolution:

Dec 31, 2034

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

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Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant

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Will a non-state actor have acquired a nuclear weapon from a state by 2030?

1.9%

Will a non-test nuclear detonation by a non-state actor cause at least one fatality by 2030?

If an offensive state nuclear detonation occurs by 2050, will the first detonation be inadvertent?

21.9%

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