Question

Will a non-state actor develop their own nuclear weapon by 2030?

34 comments34

Total Forecasters118

Community Prediction1%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 1%

median 1.0%mean 3.4%

Authors:

havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Nuclear winter

Project Sapphire

Al-Qaeda

Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant

Dirty bomb

Nuclear weapon

Environmental science

Nuclear proliferation

Nuclear terrorism

Will a non-state actor have acquired a nuclear weapon from a state by 2030?

1.9%

Will a non-test nuclear detonation by a non-state actor cause at least one fatality by 2030?

3.5%

If an offensive state nuclear detonation occurs by 2050, will the first detonation be inadvertent?

21.9%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Nuclear winter

Project Sapphire

Al-Qaeda

Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant

Dirty bomb

Nuclear weapon

Environmental science

Nuclear proliferation

Nuclear terrorism

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Breitbart•Nov 14, 2024

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Newsweek•Nov 14, 2024

Could Zelensky really go nuclear and build a ‘dirty bomb’ if Trump ends US support of Ukraine?

Independent•Nov 15, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will a non-state actor have acquired a nuclear weapon from a state by 2030?

1.9%

Will a non-test nuclear detonation by a non-state actor cause at least one fatality by 2030?

3.5%

If an offensive state nuclear detonation occurs by 2050, will the first detonation be inadvertent?

21.9%