Question

When will the FDA or EMA first approve a drug for the treatment of obesity that causes >25% weight loss?

Total Forecasters15

Community Prediction2028-12-07 (2026-10-05 - 2031-09-23)

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CDF

weight:

	lower 25%	median	upper 75%	>2050-01-01
community	Oct 2026	Dec 2028	Sep 2031	1.9%
My Prediction	—	—	—	—

Quartiles	community	My Prediction
lower 25%	Oct 2026	—
median	Dec 2028	—
upper 75%	Sep 2031	—
Upper bound
>2050-01-01	1.9%	—

Authors:

casens

Opened:

Nov 24, 2021

Closes:

Feb 1, 2034

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2050

Health & Pandemics

Anti-obesity medication

Food and Drug Administration

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