Question

When will the FDA or EMA first approve a drug for the treatment of obesity that causes >25% weight loss?

3 comments3

Total Forecasters15

Community Prediction2028-12-07

Make a Prediction

My Prediction

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>2050-01-01

...

2026-10-05 17:22

2028-12-07 05:50

2031-09-23 01:54

1.9%

Authors:

casens

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Health & Pandemics

Anti-obesity medication

Food and Drug Administration

Gastroenterology

What happens when Ozempic and Wegovy don’t work?

Independent•Nov 25, 2024

Biden proposes requiring Medicare, Medicaid to cover weight loss drugs

NBC•Nov 26, 2024

New Obesity Drug MariTide Helps Patients Lose Up to 20% of Weight, Early Data Shows

New York Times•Nov 27, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the FDA or EMA withdraw approval of Semaglutide for the treatment of obesity by 2027?

Will oral semaglutide be approved for the treatment of obesity by the FDA or EMA by 2027?

80.8%

Will a small molecule GLP-1-based drug be approved for the treatment of obesity by the FDA or EMA by 2029?

59.7%

Comments

? comments