Question

If the US is attacked by >100 nuclear detonations by 2045, will US cereal crop yields decline by ≥20%?

3 comments3

Total Forecasters22

Community Prediction85% (78% - 93%)

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50%

community: 85%

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Authors:

havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Economy & Business

United States

Nuclear weapons testing

Peaceful nuclear explosion

Takeaways from the AP’s reporting on nuclear bunkers

Associated Press•Dec 17, 2024

Nuclear bunker sales increase, despite expert warnings they won’t protect you

Independent•Dec 18, 2024

Nuclear bunker sales increase, despite warnings they won't provide protection

NPR Online News•Dec 18, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

If there are >100 nuclear detonations by 2050, will average global cereal yields be at least 5% lower in the following 5 years than in the previous 5 years?

84%

If >100 offensive nuclear detonations occur in a single conflict by 2030, will this cause a global temperature drop of ≥3°C?

25%

Will the first nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations cause more than 100 million fatalities within 1 month of the final detonation?

72%

Comments

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Authors:

havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Economy & Business

United States

Nuclear weapons testing

Peaceful nuclear explosion

Takeaways from the AP’s reporting on nuclear bunkers

Associated Press•Dec 17, 2024

Nuclear bunker sales increase, despite expert warnings they won’t protect you

Independent•Dec 18, 2024

Nuclear bunker sales increase, despite warnings they won't provide protection

NPR Online News•Dec 18, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

If there are >100 nuclear detonations by 2050, will average global cereal yields be at least 5% lower in the following 5 years than in the previous 5 years?

84%

If >100 offensive nuclear detonations occur in a single conflict by 2030, will this cause a global temperature drop of ≥3°C?

25%

Will the first nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations cause more than 100 million fatalities within 1 month of the final detonation?

72%