Question

What proportion of offensive nuclear detonations by 2030 will be of nonstrategic nuclear weapons, if there's at least one offensive detonation by then?

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Total Forecasters11

Community Prediction0.835

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My Prediction

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

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0.07061

0.8347

0.9799

Authors:

havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Strategic nuclear weapon

Physics

Military science

Security

Tactical nuclear weapon

Nuclear weapons testing

Peaceful nuclear explosion

If an offensive state nuclear detonation occurs by 2050, will the first detonation be inadvertent?

21.9%

If there is at least 1 offensive nuclear detonation by 2100, when will the first detonation occur?

2037-05-28

What will be the largest yield (in kt) nuclear weapon offensively detonated by 2050, if any offensive detonation occurs?

271

Comments

? comments

Authors:

havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Strategic nuclear weapon

Physics

Military science

Security

Tactical nuclear weapon

Nuclear weapons testing

Peaceful nuclear explosion

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If an offensive state nuclear detonation occurs by 2050, will the first detonation be inadvertent?

21.9%

If there is at least 1 offensive nuclear detonation by 2100, when will the first detonation occur?

2037-05-28

What will be the largest yield (in kt) nuclear weapon offensively detonated by 2050, if any offensive detonation occurs?

271