Question

What proportion of offensive nuclear detonations by 2030 will be of nonstrategic nuclear weapons, if there's at least one offensive detonation by then?

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Total Forecasters11

Community Prediction0.835 (0.0706 - 0.98)

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upper 75%

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0.07061

0.8347

0.9799

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havlickova.blanka

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Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Strategic nuclear weapon

Physics

Military science

Security

Tactical nuclear weapon

Nuclear weapons testing

Peaceful nuclear explosion

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If an offensive state nuclear detonation occurs by 2050, will the first detonation be inadvertent?

21.9%

If there is at least 1 offensive nuclear detonation by 2100, when will the first detonation occur?

2036-04-02

What will be the largest yield (in kt) nuclear weapon offensively detonated by 2050, if any offensive detonation occurs?

271

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