Question

Will there be a war between Russia and one or more NATO countries, but not the US, by 2035?

7 comments7

Total Forecasters108

Community Prediction10%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 10%

median 10.0%mean 19.9%

Authors:

havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Member states of NATO

Ukraine–NATO relations

Russian State TV Host Threatens Strikes on NATO Countries

Newsweek•Nov 26, 2024

Russia Accuses NATO of Pushing for Preemptive Strikes

Newsweek•Nov 27, 2024

Russia’s sabotage of western targets ‘could trigger Nato defence clause’

Guardian•Nov 28, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

If a NATO state other than the US offensively detonates a nuclear weapon before 2030, will an offensive detonation by the US also occur as part of the same conflict?

62%

Will there be a direct conflict between Russia and any NATO member state before 2027?

Most likely way(s) a nuclear war involving hundreds of detonations could end up occurring by 2050?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Member states of NATO

Ukraine–NATO relations

Russian State TV Host Threatens Strikes on NATO Countries

Newsweek•Nov 26, 2024

Russia Accuses NATO of Pushing for Preemptive Strikes

Newsweek•Nov 27, 2024

Russia’s sabotage of western targets ‘could trigger Nato defence clause’

Guardian•Nov 28, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

If a NATO state other than the US offensively detonates a nuclear weapon before 2030, will an offensive detonation by the US also occur as part of the same conflict?

62%