Every year, Vox's Future Perfect team predicts what will happen in the year ahead. Metaculus is collaborating with Future Perfect writers like Dylan Matthews and Marina Bolotnikova to host their forecast questions so you can predict 2025 alongside them. Participate before January 1st when they publish on Vox.com. Predict here! $2,500 in prizes

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Question

At least 1 fatality in a non-nuclear-armed state from a nuclear detonation by 2030, if any detonation occurs?

0
Total Forecasters29
Community Prediction70% (63.6% - 80%)

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50%
community: 70%
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Authors:
havlickova.blanka
Opened:
Closes:
Scheduled resolution:
Nuclear Risk Horizons Project
Geopolitics
Nuclear Technology & Risks
China
United Kingdom
India
Nuclear weapons testing
Peaceful nuclear explosion
Pakistan
France
North Korea and weapons of mass destruction
United States
Israel

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