Question

What fraction of offensive nuclear detonations will be in the Southern Hemisphere, if more than 50 detonations happen globally by 2050?

4 comments4

Total Forecasters13

Community Prediction0.0289

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community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

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0.009165

0.0289

0.09828

Authors:

havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Southern Hemisphere

Nuclear winter

Equator

Environmental science

If >100 offensive nuclear detonations occur in a single conflict by 2030, will this cause a global temperature drop of ≥3°C?

24.8%

What fraction of nuclear weapon detonations by 2050 will be on well-populated areas?

0.427

If there are >100 nuclear detonations by 2050, will average global cereal yields be at least 5% lower in the following 5 years than in the previous 5 years?

84%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Southern Hemisphere

Nuclear winter

Equator

Environmental science

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If >100 offensive nuclear detonations occur in a single conflict by 2030, will this cause a global temperature drop of ≥3°C?

24.8%

What fraction of nuclear weapon detonations by 2050 will be on well-populated areas?

0.427

If there are >100 nuclear detonations by 2050, will average global cereal yields be at least 5% lower in the following 5 years than in the previous 5 years?

84%