Question

If an offensive state nuclear detonation occurs by 2050, will the first detonation be inadvertent?

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Total Forecasters17

Community Prediction21.9% (10% - 25%)

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50%

community: 21.9%

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Authors:

havlickova.blanka

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Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Plowshares movement

Japan

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Lew Rockwell•Dec 13, 2024

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PJ Media•Dec 14, 2024

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New York Times•Dec 17, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

If there's a non-test detonation of a state's nuclear weapon by 2050, will the first such detonation be accidental/unauthorised?

20.9%

If there is at least 1 offensive nuclear detonation by 2100, when will the first detonation occur?

2036-04-02

if there is at least one nuclear detonation by 2050, how many total detonations will there be by then?

Comments

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Authors:

havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Plowshares movement

Japan

Science

How To Prepare for Nuclear War

Lew Rockwell•Dec 13, 2024

Iran’s Next Move Is Playing the Nuclear Card

PJ Media•Dec 14, 2024

Opinion | Trump Can Pull Us Back From the Nuclear Brink

New York Times•Dec 17, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

If there's a non-test detonation of a state's nuclear weapon by 2050, will the first such detonation be accidental/unauthorised?

20.9%

If there is at least 1 offensive nuclear detonation by 2100, when will the first detonation occur?

2036-04-02

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If an offensive state nuclear detonation occurs by 2050, will the first detonation be inadvertent?

Make a Prediction

If there's a non-test detonation of a state's nuclear weapon by 2050, will the first such detonation be accidental/unauthorised?

If there is at least 1 offensive nuclear detonation by 2100, when will the first detonation occur?

if there is at least one nuclear detonation by 2050, how many total detonations will there be by then?

Comments

If there's a non-test detonation of a state's nuclear weapon by 2050, will the first such detonation be accidental/unauthorised?

If there is at least 1 offensive nuclear detonation by 2100, when will the first detonation occur?

if there is at least one nuclear detonation by 2050, how many total detonations will there be by then?

If there's a non-test detonation of a state's nuclear weapon by 2050, will the first such detonation be accidental/unauthorised?

If there is at least 1 offensive nuclear detonation by 2100, when will the first detonation occur?

if there is at least one nuclear detonation by 2050, how many total detonations will there be by then?

If there's a non-test detonation of a state's nuclear weapon by 2050, will the first such detonation be accidental/unauthorised?

If there is at least 1 offensive nuclear detonation by 2100, when will the first detonation occur?

if there is at least one nuclear detonation by 2050, how many total detonations will there be by then?