Question

If an offensive state nuclear detonation occurs by 2050, will the first detonation be inadvertent?

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Total Forecasters17

Community Prediction21.9% (10% - 25%)

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50%

community: 21.9%

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Authors:

havlickova.blanka

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Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Plowshares movement

Japan

Science

How To Prepare for Nuclear War

Lew Rockwell•Dec 13, 2024

Joe Biden Under Pressure To Take Away Donald Trump's Nuclear War Power

Newsweek•Dec 13, 2024

The fragility of nuclear deterrence

Strategic Culture•Dec 13, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

If there's a non-test detonation of a state's nuclear weapon by 2050, will the first such detonation be accidental/unauthorised?

20.9%

If there is at least 1 offensive nuclear detonation by 2100, when will the first detonation occur?

2036-04-02

if there is at least one nuclear detonation by 2050, how many total detonations will there be by then?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Plowshares movement

Japan

Science

How To Prepare for Nuclear War

Lew Rockwell•Dec 13, 2024

Joe Biden Under Pressure To Take Away Donald Trump's Nuclear War Power

Newsweek•Dec 13, 2024

The fragility of nuclear deterrence

Strategic Culture•Dec 13, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

If there's a non-test detonation of a state's nuclear weapon by 2050, will the first such detonation be accidental/unauthorised?

20.9%

If there is at least 1 offensive nuclear detonation by 2100, when will the first detonation occur?

2036-04-02

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If an offensive state nuclear detonation occurs by 2050, will the first detonation be inadvertent?

Make a Prediction

If there's a non-test detonation of a state's nuclear weapon by 2050, will the first such detonation be accidental/unauthorised?

If there is at least 1 offensive nuclear detonation by 2100, when will the first detonation occur?

if there is at least one nuclear detonation by 2050, how many total detonations will there be by then?

Comments

If there's a non-test detonation of a state's nuclear weapon by 2050, will the first such detonation be accidental/unauthorised?

If there is at least 1 offensive nuclear detonation by 2100, when will the first detonation occur?

if there is at least one nuclear detonation by 2050, how many total detonations will there be by then?

If there's a non-test detonation of a state's nuclear weapon by 2050, will the first such detonation be accidental/unauthorised?

If there is at least 1 offensive nuclear detonation by 2100, when will the first detonation occur?

if there is at least one nuclear detonation by 2050, how many total detonations will there be by then?

If there's a non-test detonation of a state's nuclear weapon by 2050, will the first such detonation be accidental/unauthorised?

If there is at least 1 offensive nuclear detonation by 2100, when will the first detonation occur?

if there is at least one nuclear detonation by 2050, how many total detonations will there be by then?