Question

If an offensive state nuclear detonation occurs by 2050, will the first detonation be inadvertent?

no comments0

Total Forecasters18

Community Prediction

21%

(15% - 25%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 21%

Authors:

havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Nov 18, 2021

Closes:

Dec 31, 2049

Scheduled resolution:

Dec 31, 2049

Spot Scoring Time:

Nov 20, 2021

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Plowshares movement

Japan

Science

Will Climate Damage Create New Security Risks?

Forbes•Mar 21, 2025

Ballistic missile interceptors and pamphlets dropping in France - how Europe is preparing for nuclear war

Independent•Mar 21, 2025

Is Europe Willing To Trade a U.S. Nuclear Guarantee for a French One? | Opinion

Newsweek•Mar 21, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

If there's a non-test detonation of a state's nuclear weapon by 2050, will the first such detonation be accidental/unauthorised?

15%

If there is at least 1 offensive nuclear detonation by 2100, when will the first detonation occur?

2035

if there is at least one nuclear detonation by 2050, how many total detonations will there be by then?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Nov 18, 2021

Closes:

Dec 31, 2049

Scheduled resolution:

Dec 31, 2049

Spot Scoring Time:

Nov 20, 2021

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Plowshares movement

Japan

Science

Will Climate Damage Create New Security Risks?

Forbes•Mar 21, 2025

Ballistic missile interceptors and pamphlets dropping in France - how Europe is preparing for nuclear war

Independent•Mar 21, 2025

Is Europe Willing To Trade a U.S. Nuclear Guarantee for a French One? | Opinion

Newsweek•Mar 21, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

If there's a non-test detonation of a state's nuclear weapon by 2050, will the first such detonation be accidental/unauthorised?

15%

If there is at least 1 offensive nuclear detonation by 2100, when will the first detonation occur?

2035