Question

If there's a non-test detonation of a state's nuclear weapon by 2050, will the first such detonation be accidental/unauthorised?

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Total Forecasters15

Community Prediction20.9% (10% - 29%)

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50%

community: 20.9%

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Authors:

havlickova.blanka

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Scheduled resolution:

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Plowshares movement

Opinion | Trump Can Pull Us Back From the Nuclear Brink

New York Times•Dec 17, 2024

Takeaways from the AP’s reporting on nuclear bunkers

Associated Press•Dec 17, 2024

90 Seconds to Midnight: Surviving the Atomic Age | Opinion

Newsweek•Dec 19, 2024

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If an offensive state nuclear detonation occurs by 2050, will the first detonation be inadvertent?

21.9%

Will there be at least 1 fatality from a non-test nuclear detonation before 2025?

0.4%

Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated before 2035?

80%

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