Question

Will China reach 1,000 nuclear warheads by 2030?

6 comments6

Total Forecasters67

Community Prediction62% (53% - 72.5%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 62%

Authors:

PhilippSchoenegger

Opened:

Nov 22, 2021

Closes:

Jan 1, 2030

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2030

The Taiwan Tinderbox

Geopolitics

Arms Control Association

China

Federation of American Scientists

US Department of Defense

Satellite images show China building huge secret fusion research facility, analysts say

Independent•Jan 28, 2025

China Hits Back at US Over Nuclear Weapons Alarm

Newsweek•Jan 29, 2025

Satellite Picture Shows China's Huge Nuclear Weapons Research Center

Newsweek•Jan 29, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

China Nuclear Threat For Taiwan Interference? → 2030: Does China Have 1000 Nukes?

Will there be nuclear conflict between any of the US, China, and Taiwan before the following years?

Will China go back on its “no first use” nuclear weapons policy before the following years?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

PhilippSchoenegger

Opened:

Nov 22, 2021

Closes:

Jan 1, 2030

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2030

The Taiwan Tinderbox

Geopolitics

Arms Control Association

China

Federation of American Scientists

US Department of Defense

Satellite images show China building huge secret fusion research facility, analysts say

Independent•Jan 28, 2025

China Hits Back at US Over Nuclear Weapons Alarm

Newsweek•Jan 29, 2025

Satellite Picture Shows China's Huge Nuclear Weapons Research Center

Newsweek•Jan 29, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch