M

🚀Metaculus Open-Source Rewrite is Live!

You're now enjoying a rewritten, open-source Metaculus, with a range of improvements and new opportunities for collaboration. Go here to learn more!

Question

Will China reach 1,000 nuclear warheads by 2030?

11
6
Total Forecasters65
Community Prediction55%

Make a Prediction

community: 54.5%
median 54.5%mean 54.4%
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%
Authors:
PhilippSchoenegger
Opened:
Closes:
Scheduled resolution:
The Taiwan Tinderbox
Geopolitics
Arms Control Association
China
Federation of American Scientists
US Department of Defense

Comments

? comments