Question

Will space debris cause at least one fatality in space before 2035?

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Total Forecasters44

Community Prediction8% (4.4% - 12.5%)

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community: 8%

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Kostas

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Environmental science

International Space Station

Russia

NASA Responds to Rumors of 'Catastrophic' ISS De-orbit

Newsweek•Dec 19, 2024

SpaceX to launch more private astronaut missions to ISS

Raw Story•Dec 20, 2024

NASA finalizes strategy for human presence in space

FOX News•Dec 21, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will space debris kill a human on Earth by 2025?

0.3%

Space Debris and the Kessler Syndrome

What will be the estimated number of break-ups, explosions, collisions, or anomalous events resulting in fragmentation in space as of January 1, 2030?

1.06k

Comments

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Authors:

Kostas

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Environmental science

International Space Station

Russia

NASA Responds to Rumors of 'Catastrophic' ISS De-orbit

Newsweek•Dec 19, 2024

SpaceX to launch more private astronaut missions to ISS

Raw Story•Dec 20, 2024

NASA finalizes strategy for human presence in space

FOX News•Dec 21, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will space debris kill a human on Earth by 2025?

0.3%

Space Debris and the Kessler Syndrome

What will be the estimated number of break-ups, explosions, collisions, or anomalous events resulting in fragmentation in space as of January 1, 2030?

1.06k

Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

MetaculusM

Will space debris cause at least one fatality in space before 2035?

Make a Prediction

Will space debris kill a human on Earth by 2025?

Space Debris and the Kessler Syndrome

What will be the estimated number of break-ups, explosions, collisions, or anomalous events resulting in fragmentation in space as of January 1, 2030?

Comments

Will space debris kill a human on Earth by 2025?

Space Debris and the Kessler Syndrome

What will be the estimated number of break-ups, explosions, collisions, or anomalous events resulting in fragmentation in space as of January 1, 2030?

Will space debris kill a human on Earth by 2025?

Space Debris and the Kessler Syndrome

What will be the estimated number of break-ups, explosions, collisions, or anomalous events resulting in fragmentation in space as of January 1, 2030?

Will space debris kill a human on Earth by 2025?

Space Debris and the Kessler Syndrome

What will be the estimated number of break-ups, explosions, collisions, or anomalous events resulting in fragmentation in space as of January 1, 2030?