Question

Will space debris cause at least one fatality in space before 2035?

3 comments3

Total Forecasters45

Community Prediction7% (5% - 12.5%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 7%

Authors:

Kostas

Opened:

Dec 23, 2021

Closes:

Dec 31, 2034

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 31, 2035

Environmental science

International Space Station

Russia

Elon Musk keeps launching rockets — and that's causing trouble for airlines

Business Insider•Jan 22, 2025

This Company Wants to Build a Space Station That Has Artificial Gravity

Wired•Jan 22, 2025

Photos show the 1,000 pounds of space debris that crash landed in Kenya. It's unclear who it belongs to.

Business Insider•Jan 26, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Space Debris and the Kessler Syndrome

What will be the estimated number of break-ups, explosions, collisions, or anomalous events resulting in fragmentation in space as of January 1, 2030?

1.08k

Will Kessler syndrome occur before 2050?

17%

Comments

? comments