Question

Will space debris cause at least one fatality in space before 2035?

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Total Forecasters44

Community Prediction8% (4.4% - 12.5%)

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community: 8%

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Environmental science

International Space Station

Russia

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Will space debris kill a human on Earth by 2025?

0.3%

Space Debris and the Kessler Syndrome

What will be the estimated number of break-ups, explosions, collisions, or anomalous events resulting in fragmentation in space as of January 1, 2030?

1.06k

Comments

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Authors:

Kostas

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Environmental science

International Space Station

Russia

From Starship tests to Starliner woes, recapping the biggest spaceflight missions of 2024

USA Today•Dec 16, 2024

NASA Responds to Rumors of 'Catastrophic' ISS De-orbit

Newsweek•Dec 19, 2024

K2 Space will fly its extra-large satellite for the first time in 2026

TechCrunch•Dec 20, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will space debris kill a human on Earth by 2025?

0.3%

Space Debris and the Kessler Syndrome

What will be the estimated number of break-ups, explosions, collisions, or anomalous events resulting in fragmentation in space as of January 1, 2030?

1.06k

Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

MetaculusM

Will space debris cause at least one fatality in space before 2035?

Make a Prediction

Will space debris kill a human on Earth by 2025?

Space Debris and the Kessler Syndrome

What will be the estimated number of break-ups, explosions, collisions, or anomalous events resulting in fragmentation in space as of January 1, 2030?

Comments

Will space debris kill a human on Earth by 2025?

Space Debris and the Kessler Syndrome

What will be the estimated number of break-ups, explosions, collisions, or anomalous events resulting in fragmentation in space as of January 1, 2030?

Will space debris kill a human on Earth by 2025?

Space Debris and the Kessler Syndrome

What will be the estimated number of break-ups, explosions, collisions, or anomalous events resulting in fragmentation in space as of January 1, 2030?

Will space debris kill a human on Earth by 2025?

Space Debris and the Kessler Syndrome

What will be the estimated number of break-ups, explosions, collisions, or anomalous events resulting in fragmentation in space as of January 1, 2030?