Question

When will the first space mission remove more than one piece of space debris from orbit?

Total Forecasters17

Community Prediction2028-10-09 (2026-08-12 - 2032-01-30)

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CDF

weight:

	lower 25%	median	upper 75%	>2050-01-01
community	Aug 2026	Oct 2028	Jan 2032	2.2%
My Prediction	—	—	—	—

Quartiles	community	My Prediction
lower 25%	Aug 2026	—
median	Oct 2028	—
upper 75%	Jan 2032	—
Upper bound
>2050-01-01	2.2%	—

Authors:

Kostas

Opened:

Dec 23, 2021

Closes:

Dec 31, 2049

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2050

European Space Agency

Space debris

Kessler syndrome

Environmental science

Low Earth orbit

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What total mass (in tonnes) of space debris will be removed by active measures by 2040?

11.2

If Kessler syndrome is not triggered, when will peak space debris be reached?

2040-08-02

What percent of spacecraft will satisfy post mission disposal regulations in the decade of 2020-2029?

59.3

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