Question

When will the first space mission remove more than one piece of space debris from orbit?

2 comments2

Total Forecasters17

Community Prediction2028-10-09 (2026-08-12 - 2032-01-30)

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weight:

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community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>2050-01-01

...

2026-08-12 18:31

2028-10-09 05:45

2032-01-30 19:28

2.2%

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Authors:

Kostas

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

European Space Agency

Space debris

Kessler syndrome

Environmental science

Low Earth orbit

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What total mass (in tonnes) of space debris will be removed by active measures by 2040?

11.2

If Kessler syndrome is not triggered, when will peak space debris be reached?

2040-08-02

What percent of spacecraft will satisfy post mission disposal regulations in the decade of 2020-2029?

59.3

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Kostas

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

European Space Agency

Space debris

Kessler syndrome

Environmental science

Low Earth orbit

K2 Space will fly its extra-large satellite for the first time in 2026

TechCrunch•Dec 20, 2024

SpaceX to launch more private astronaut missions to ISS

Raw Story•Dec 20, 2024

Artificial solar eclipse: Why are satellites trying to block the sun?

Al Jazeera•Dec 13, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

What total mass (in tonnes) of space debris will be removed by active measures by 2040?

11.2

If Kessler syndrome is not triggered, when will peak space debris be reached?

2040-08-02

What percent of spacecraft will satisfy post mission disposal regulations in the decade of 2020-2029?

59.3

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When will the first space mission remove more than one piece of space debris from orbit?

Make a Prediction

What total mass (in tonnes) of space debris will be removed by active measures by 2040?

If Kessler syndrome is not triggered, when will peak space debris be reached?

What percent of spacecraft will satisfy post mission disposal regulations in the decade of 2020-2029?

Comments

What total mass (in tonnes) of space debris will be removed by active measures by 2040?

If Kessler syndrome is not triggered, when will peak space debris be reached?

What percent of spacecraft will satisfy post mission disposal regulations in the decade of 2020-2029?

What total mass (in tonnes) of space debris will be removed by active measures by 2040?

If Kessler syndrome is not triggered, when will peak space debris be reached?

What percent of spacecraft will satisfy post mission disposal regulations in the decade of 2020-2029?

What total mass (in tonnes) of space debris will be removed by active measures by 2040?

If Kessler syndrome is not triggered, when will peak space debris be reached?

What percent of spacecraft will satisfy post mission disposal regulations in the decade of 2020-2029?