Question

What will be the maximum global single-year death toll attributable to a single pandemic between 2022 to 2121?

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Total Forecasters22

Community Prediction38.2M (11.8M - 100M)

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<100k

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>10B

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1.0%

11.79M

38.21M

100.3M

0.6%

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Authors:

ege_erdil

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Is Bird Flu a Potential Pandemic? Dangers of the Outbreak Explained

Newsweek•Dec 19, 2024

The biggest science stories that lit up our world in 2024

PBS NewsHour•Dec 21, 2024

43 Dark And Disturbing Facts I Learned In 2024

Buzzfeed•Dec 20, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

What will be the largest single-year population decline between 2021 to 2120?

2.02

Will there be a novel pathogen that kills over 25 million people between 2022 and 2031 (inclusive)?

Ragnarök Question Series: if a natural pandemic catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

Comments

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Authors:

ege_erdil

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Is Bird Flu a Potential Pandemic? Dangers of the Outbreak Explained

Newsweek•Dec 19, 2024

The biggest science stories that lit up our world in 2024

PBS NewsHour•Dec 21, 2024

43 Dark And Disturbing Facts I Learned In 2024

Buzzfeed•Dec 20, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

What will be the largest single-year population decline between 2021 to 2120?

2.02

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What will be the maximum global single-year death toll attributable to a single pandemic between 2022 to 2121?

Make a Prediction

What will be the largest single-year population decline between 2021 to 2120?

Will there be a novel pathogen that kills over 25 million people between 2022 and 2031 (inclusive)?

Ragnarök Question Series: if a natural pandemic catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

Comments

What will be the largest single-year population decline between 2021 to 2120?

Will there be a novel pathogen that kills over 25 million people between 2022 and 2031 (inclusive)?

Ragnarök Question Series: if a natural pandemic catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

What will be the largest single-year population decline between 2021 to 2120?

Will there be a novel pathogen that kills over 25 million people between 2022 and 2031 (inclusive)?

Ragnarök Question Series: if a natural pandemic catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

What will be the largest single-year population decline between 2021 to 2120?

Will there be a novel pathogen that kills over 25 million people between 2022 and 2031 (inclusive)?

Ragnarök Question Series: if a natural pandemic catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?