Question
What will be the maximum global single-year death toll attributable to a single pandemic between 2022 to 2121?
Total Forecasters22
Community Prediction
38.2M deaths
(11.8M - 100M)
Make a Prediction
CDF
| Lower bound | community | My Prediction |
| <100k | 1.0% | — |
| Quartiles | ||
| lower 25% | 11.79M | — |
| median | 38.21M | — |
| upper 75% | 100.3M | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >10B | 0.6% | — |
Authors:
Opened:Nov 26, 2021
Closes:Dec 31, 2121
Scheduled resolution:Dec 31, 2121
Spot Scoring Time:Nov 28, 2021
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch
Comments
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Authors:
Opened:Nov 26, 2021
Closes:Dec 31, 2121
Scheduled resolution:Dec 31, 2121
Spot Scoring Time:Nov 28, 2021
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch