📖 The ACX 2025 Prediction Contest Is Open!

The Astral Codex Ten Prediction Contest is back with an expanded $10,000 prize pool! Test your forecasting skills across geopolitics, technology, economics, and more with questions curated by Scott Alexander. Make your predictions by January 31 to compete.

🔭 The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global — Feb 3

For the second year, Metaculus is teaming up with Bridgewater Associates to host a competition featuring $25k in prizes and potential opportunities with the asset management firm — and this year, forecasters from around the globe can compete.

Start here to register for the February 3rd competition, warm up on practice questions, and learn about the separate Open and Undergraduate leaderboards.

M

Question

What will be the maximum global single-year death toll attributable to a single pandemic between 2022 to 2121?

9
5
Total Forecasters22
Community Prediction38.2M (11.8M - 100M)

Make a Prediction

PDF

CDF

weight:
My Prediction
community
<100k
lower 25%
median
upper 75%
>10B
...
...
...
...
...
1.0%
11.79M
38.21M
100.3M
0.6%
Authors:
ege_erdil
Opened:
Closes:
Scheduled resolution:
Health & Pandemics
Black Death
Public health
Medicine
COVID-19
Virology

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