Question

What total mass (in tonnes) of space debris will be removed by active measures by 2040?

4 comments4

Total Forecasters11

Community Prediction19.1

Make a Prediction

My Prediction

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>1k

...

17.1%

1.804

19.15

474.9

17.8%

Authors:

Kostas

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

European Space Agency

Space debris

Kessler syndrome

Environmental science

When will the first space mission remove more than one piece of space debris from orbit?

2028-10-09

What percent of spacecraft will satisfy post mission disposal regulations in the decade of 2020-2029?

59.3

If Kessler syndrome is not triggered, when will peak space debris be reached?

2040-08-02

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Kostas

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

European Space Agency

Space debris

Kessler syndrome

Environmental science

Mission Space launches next quarter to provide real-time space weather forecasts

TechCrunch•Nov 15, 2024

Twin spacecraft will launch to create an artificial solar eclipse

New Scientist•Nov 15, 2024

The International Space Station is leaking. NASA and Russia’s space agency disagree on the risks

CNN•Nov 15, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

When will the first space mission remove more than one piece of space debris from orbit?

2028-10-09

What percent of spacecraft will satisfy post mission disposal regulations in the decade of 2020-2029?

59.3

If Kessler syndrome is not triggered, when will peak space debris be reached?

2040-08-02