Question

What total mass (in tonnes) of space debris will be removed by active measures by 2040?

Total Forecasters10

Community Prediction11.2 (1.55 - 337)

Make a Prediction

PDF

CDF

weight:

	<1	lower 25%	median	upper 75%	>1k
community	19.0%	1.546	11.2	336.6	15.3%
My Prediction	—	—	—	—	—

Lower bound	community	My Prediction
<1	19.0%	—
Quartiles
lower 25%	1.546	—
median	11.2	—
upper 75%	336.6	—
Upper bound
>1k	15.3%	—

Authors:

Kostas

Opened:

Jan 26, 2022

Closes:

Dec 30, 2039

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2040

European Space Agency

Space debris

Kessler syndrome

Environmental science

Asteroid 2024 YR4 has a 2% chance of hitting Earth in 2032. Here’s how astronomers are tracking it

CNN•Feb 16, 2025

Ex-astronaut: 'City-killing' asteroid that could hit Earth in 2032 would cause unimaginable destruction

Daily Mail•Feb 17, 2025

NASA quietly increases the chance of 'city-destroying' asteroid hitting Earth in 2032 yet AGAIN

Daily Mail•Feb 19, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

When will the first space mission remove more than one piece of space debris from orbit?

2028-10-09

What percent of spacecraft will satisfy post mission disposal regulations in the decade of 2020-2029?

59.3

If Kessler syndrome is not triggered, when will peak space debris be reached?

2040-08-02

Comments

? comments