Question

Will space debris kill a human on Earth by 2025?

13 comments13

Total Forecasters99

Community Prediction1%

Make a Prediction

community: 1%

median 1.0%mean 2.1%

Authors:

crule

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Environment & Climate

Economy & Business

Technology

Outline of space science

Environmental science

Will space debris cause at least one fatality in space before 2035?

Space Debris and the Kessler Syndrome

When will the first space mission remove more than one piece of space debris from orbit?

2028-10-09

Comments

? comments

Authors:

crule

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Environment & Climate

Economy & Business

Technology

Outline of space science

Environmental science

A spacecraft is on its way to a harmless asteroid slammed by NASA in a previous save-the-Earth test

Associated Press•Oct 7, 2024

Spacecraft on its way to investigate asteroid slammed by NASA in a previous save-the-Earth test

PBS NewsHour•Oct 8, 2024

Ghost Rockets, ASAT Tests Create “A Ticking Time Bomb” For Astronauts

Forbes•Oct 8, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will space debris cause at least one fatality in space before 2035?

Space Debris and the Kessler Syndrome

When will the first space mission remove more than one piece of space debris from orbit?

2028-10-09