Question

Will there be a military conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before 2023?

Resolved :No

107 comments107

Total Forecasters616

Community Prediction1%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

90.5

Community Peer Score

7.4

median 1.0%mean 1.4%

Authors:

TomL

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Global Trends 2022

2022 Scott Alexander predictions

United States Indo-Pacific Command

Will armed conflicts between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) lead to at least 100 deaths before 2026?

Will armed conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) cause at least 100 deaths before 2050?

67.4%

Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between China and Taiwan in 2024?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

TomL

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Global Trends 2022

2022 Scott Alexander predictions

United States Indo-Pacific Command

Taiwan eyes $15B military package in signal to Trump administration it is ‘serious’ on defense: report

FOX News•Nov 12, 2024

China Issues Donald Trump a Warning Over Taiwan

Newsweek•Nov 12, 2024

Taiwan Weighs Large US Arms Purchase as Strategic Outreach to Trump

Washington Free Beacon•Nov 12, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will armed conflicts between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) lead to at least 100 deaths before 2026?

Will armed conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) cause at least 100 deaths before 2050?

67.4%