Question

Will Israel and Palestine hold peace talks in 2022?

Resolved :No

18 comments18

Total Forecasters252

Community Prediction1%

Make a Prediction

community: 1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

87.6

Community Peer Score

9.9

median 1.0%mean 1.2%

Authors:

casens

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Palestinian National Authority

Israel

Will the Gaza war end and significant progress be made towards a two-state solution to the Israel-Palestine conflict before January 1, 2030?

Will a Israel-Hamas conflict ceasefire lasting at least 30 days be agreed to before November 5th, 2024?

Will Israel recognize Palestine by 2070?

33%

Comments

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Authors:

casens

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Palestinian National Authority

Israel

One year on from October 7, Biden still can’t offer a clear path forward

Independent•Oct 8, 2024

'All this blood, all this death': Palestinians protest Israel war with no end in sight

NPR Online News•Oct 8, 2024

Middle East latest: 18 dead after Israeli strikes in Gaza

Associated Press•Oct 9, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the Gaza war end and significant progress be made towards a two-state solution to the Israel-Palestine conflict before January 1, 2030?

Will a Israel-Hamas conflict ceasefire lasting at least 30 days be agreed to before November 5th, 2024?

Will Israel recognize Palestine by 2070?

33%