Question

Will Russia invade Ukrainian territory before 2023?

Resolved :Yes

237

1.9k comments1.9k

Total Forecasters1157

Community Prediction99%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 99%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

-6.1

Community Peer Score

7.6

median 99.0%mean 96.6%

Authors:

casens

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Global Trends 2022

2022 Scott Alexander predictions

Geopolitics

United Nations Security Council

Russo-Ukrainian War

War in Donbass

Vladimir Putin

Temporarily occupied and uncontrolled territories of Ukraine

Ukraine

Crimea

Russia

Large group of Russian and North Korean forces prepared to retake Russia’s Kursk region from Ukraine

CNN•Nov 11, 2024

10_Ukraine rushes to reinforce eastern front as pressure mounts

Korea Herald•Nov 12, 2024

Russia Racing Against Time To Retake Kursk Ahead of Trump 'Ceasefire'

Newsweek•Nov 12, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Russia have significantly expanded its controlled territory in Ukraine on January 1, 2026?

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Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2025?

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