Question

What will be the UK’s peak 7-day moving average of COVID hospital admissions for the winter of 2021-2022?

Resolved :2.3k2.3k

Total Forecasters39

Community Prediction2.3k (2.22k - 2.39k)

Make a Prediction

PDF

CDF

	lower 25%	median	upper 75%	>8k
community	2.219k	2.304k	2.394k	0.2%
My Prediction	—	—	—	—

Quartiles	community	My Prediction
lower 25%	2.219k	—
median	2.304k	—
upper 75%	2.394k	—
Upper bound
>8k	0.2%	—

What was the final result?2.3k

Community Baseline Score

82.7

Community Peer Score

33.4

Authors:

juancambeiro

Opened:

Dec 15, 2021

Closes:

Feb 15, 2022

Resolves:

Mar 24, 2022

Health & Pandemics

2021-2025 Leaderboard

National Health Service (England)

Epidemiology

Stephen Powis to step down as NHS England medical director

Guardian•Mar 6, 2025

NHS chief urges the public to isolate for TWO DAYS if they have these symptoms

Daily Mail•Mar 6, 2025

Norovirus: NHS chief urges Britons to isolate for two days if feeling unwell amid second wave fears

Independent•Mar 6, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

What will be the combined maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people relative to the maximum weekly rate of the peak disease in the 2024-25 season?

1.43

Will a new SARS-CoV-2 variant classified as a VOC or worse result in at least 20,000 daily incident COVID hospitalizations in the US before July 1, 2025?

What will be the peak Covid-19 Hospitalization rate (new admissions per week per million) in the US in these years?

120

Comments

? comments