Question

Will Boris Johnson be Prime Minister of the UK on June 1, 2022?

Resolved :Yes

94 comments94

Total Forecasters369

Community Prediction96%

Make a Prediction

community: 96%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

37.9

Community Peer Score

19.1

median 96.0%mean 93.1%

Authors:

Jgalt

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Politics

Conservative Party (UK)

1922 Committee

United Kingdom

Prime Minister of the UK

Boris Johnson

Will Boris Johnson return as the leader of the UK Conservative Party before 2026?

Will the UK have a Conservative Prime Minister on January 1, 2030?

25%

Will Nigel Farage become Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before January 1, 2035?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Jgalt

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Politics

Conservative Party (UK)

1922 Committee

United Kingdom

Prime Minister of the UK

Boris Johnson

UK Conservatives narrow their leadership race to 3 as a new front-runner surges

Associated Press•Oct 8, 2024

James Cleverly emerges as frontrunner in UK Conservatives leadership race

Al Jazeera•Oct 9, 2024

‘I felt like Achilles in a hard hat’: an extract from Boris Johnson’s ‘alternative’ memoir | Ian Martin

Guardian•Oct 10, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Boris Johnson return as the leader of the UK Conservative Party before 2026?

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25%