Question

When will a single reusable rocket stage be used for the 25th time?

23 comments23

Total Forecasters37

Community Prediction2025-05-27 (2025-01-31 - 2025-12-21)

Make a Prediction

weight:

My Prediction

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>2030-01-01

...

2025-01-31 02:31

2025-05-27 03:28

2025-12-21 05:09

1.5%

Learn more about scores here.

Authors:

Kostas

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

SpaceX reusable launch system

Elon Musk

List of Falcon 9 first-stage boosters

Reusable launch system

Aerospace engineering

SpaceX

K2 Space will fly its extra-large satellite for the first time in 2026

TechCrunch•Dec 20, 2024

Outgoing NASA leader Bill Nelson weighs in on Elon Musk and SpaceX, defends plans for moon rocket

CBS•Dec 19, 2024

SpaceX to launch more private astronaut missions to ISS

Raw Story•Dec 20, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

What will be the maximum number of on-Earth reuses for a single booster or other rocket stage in the following years?

11.7

What percent of the total rockets launched into space in each year will have been reused?

When will a reusable single-stage-to-orbit vehicle deliver a payload to orbit?

2036-01-01

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Kostas

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

SpaceX reusable launch system

Elon Musk

List of Falcon 9 first-stage boosters

Reusable launch system

Aerospace engineering

SpaceX

K2 Space will fly its extra-large satellite for the first time in 2026

TechCrunch•Dec 20, 2024

Outgoing NASA leader Bill Nelson weighs in on Elon Musk and SpaceX, defends plans for moon rocket

CBS•Dec 19, 2024

SpaceX to launch more private astronaut missions to ISS

Raw Story•Dec 20, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

What will be the maximum number of on-Earth reuses for a single booster or other rocket stage in the following years?

11.7

What percent of the total rockets launched into space in each year will have been reused?

When will a reusable single-stage-to-orbit vehicle deliver a payload to orbit?

2036-01-01

Take Our 🏆Quarterly Cup🏆 Survey

MetaculusM

When will a single reusable rocket stage be used for the 25th time?

Make a Prediction

What will be the maximum number of on-Earth reuses for a single booster or other rocket stage in the following years?

What percent of the total rockets launched into space in each year will have been reused?

When will a reusable single-stage-to-orbit vehicle deliver a payload to orbit?

Comments

What will be the maximum number of on-Earth reuses for a single booster or other rocket stage in the following years?

What percent of the total rockets launched into space in each year will have been reused?

When will a reusable single-stage-to-orbit vehicle deliver a payload to orbit?

What will be the maximum number of on-Earth reuses for a single booster or other rocket stage in the following years?

What percent of the total rockets launched into space in each year will have been reused?

When will a reusable single-stage-to-orbit vehicle deliver a payload to orbit?

What will be the maximum number of on-Earth reuses for a single booster or other rocket stage in the following years?

What percent of the total rockets launched into space in each year will have been reused?

When will a reusable single-stage-to-orbit vehicle deliver a payload to orbit?