Question

Will any nation have less than 10% of their population vaccinated with at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine on December 31, 2022?

Resolved :Yes

17 comments17

Total Forecasters137

Community Prediction99%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 99%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

68.9

Community Peer Score

18.1

median 99.0%mean 96.0%

Authors:

casens

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

2022 Scott Alexander predictions

Future Perfect 2022 Series

World Health Organization

How many total SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccine doses will the US FDA and CDC recommend for at least 15% of the US on December 31, 2024?

8.06

Will there be a novel pathogen that kills over 25 million people between 2022 and 2031 (inclusive)?

When will a SARS-CoV-2 variant overtake Omicron as the dominant variant globally?

2025-01-01

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