Question

Will 2022 be warmer than 2021?

Resolved :Yes

35 comments35

Total Forecasters270

Community Prediction96%

Make a Prediction

community: 96%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

43.1

Community Peer Score

4.2

median 96.0%mean 93.0%

Authors:

casens

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

2022 Scott Alexander predictions

Future Perfect 2022 Series

Environment & Climate

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Global warming

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Will the following years be the warmest year on record?

Longbets series: will the annual average temperature anomaly above the 1850-1899 baseline be 2.0C or higher by 2037?

23%

Before 2100, will there be a 5-year period with an average global temperature >3.6˚C warmer than the 1861-1880 baseline?

20%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

casens

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

2022 Scott Alexander predictions

Future Perfect 2022 Series

Environment & Climate

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Global warming

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

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Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the following years be the warmest year on record?

Longbets series: will the annual average temperature anomaly above the 1850-1899 baseline be 2.0C or higher by 2037?

23%

Before 2100, will there be a 5-year period with an average global temperature >3.6˚C warmer than the 1861-1880 baseline?

20%