Question

Will 2022 be warmer than 2021?

Resolved :Yes96%

35 comments35

Total Forecasters270

Community Prediction96% (90% - 99%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 96%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

43.1

Community Peer Score

4.2

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Authors:

casens

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

2022 Scott Alexander predictions

Future Perfect 2022 Series

Environment & Climate

2021-2025 Leaderboard

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Global warming

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Global forecast for 2025 sees temperatures falling back below 1.5°C

New Scientist•Dec 13, 2024

The Most Significant U.S. Weather Events Of 2024

Forbes•Dec 17, 2024

Wild temperature swings are coming the rest of the year. Here’s what to expect

CNN•Dec 18, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the following years be the warmest year on record?

Longbets series: will the annual average temperature anomaly above the 1850-1899 baseline be 2.0C or higher by 2037?

23%

Before 2100, will there be a 5-year period with an average global temperature >3.6˚C warmer than the 1861-1880 baseline?

20%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

casens

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

2022 Scott Alexander predictions

Future Perfect 2022 Series

Environment & Climate

2021-2025 Leaderboard

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Global warming

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Global forecast for 2025 sees temperatures falling back below 1.5°C

New Scientist•Dec 13, 2024

The Most Significant U.S. Weather Events Of 2024

Forbes•Dec 17, 2024

Wild temperature swings are coming the rest of the year. Here’s what to expect

CNN•Dec 18, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the following years be the warmest year on record?

Longbets series: will the annual average temperature anomaly above the 1850-1899 baseline be 2.0C or higher by 2037?

23%

Before 2100, will there be a 5-year period with an average global temperature >3.6˚C warmer than the 1861-1880 baseline?

20%

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Will 2022 be warmer than 2021?

Make a Prediction

Will the following years be the warmest year on record?

Longbets series: will the annual average temperature anomaly above the 1850-1899 baseline be 2.0C or higher by 2037?

Before 2100, will there be a 5-year period with an average global temperature >3.6˚C warmer than the 1861-1880 baseline?

Comments

Will the following years be the warmest year on record?

Longbets series: will the annual average temperature anomaly above the 1850-1899 baseline be 2.0C or higher by 2037?

Before 2100, will there be a 5-year period with an average global temperature >3.6˚C warmer than the 1861-1880 baseline?

Will the following years be the warmest year on record?

Longbets series: will the annual average temperature anomaly above the 1850-1899 baseline be 2.0C or higher by 2037?

Before 2100, will there be a 5-year period with an average global temperature >3.6˚C warmer than the 1861-1880 baseline?

Will the following years be the warmest year on record?

Longbets series: will the annual average temperature anomaly above the 1850-1899 baseline be 2.0C or higher by 2037?

Before 2100, will there be a 5-year period with an average global temperature >3.6˚C warmer than the 1861-1880 baseline?