Question

Will 2022 be warmer than 2021?

Resolved :Yes

35 comments35

Total Forecasters270

Community Prediction96%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 96%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

43.1

Community Peer Score

4.2

median 96.0%mean 93.0%

Authors:

casens

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

2022 Scott Alexander predictions

Future Perfect 2022 Series

Environment & Climate

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Global warming

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Will the following years be the warmest year on record?

Longbets series: will the annual average temperature anomaly above the 1850-1899 baseline be 2.0C or higher by 2037?

23%

Before 2100, will there be a 5-year period with an average global temperature >3.6˚C warmer than the 1861-1880 baseline?

20%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

casens

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

2022 Scott Alexander predictions

Future Perfect 2022 Series

Environment & Climate

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Global warming

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

2024 'virtually certain' to be warmest year on record, scientists say

USA Today•Nov 11, 2024

2024 set to be hottest year on record as temperatures breach 1.5C threshold

Independent•Nov 11, 2024

Humanity has warmed the planet by 1.5°C since 1700

New Scientist•Nov 12, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the following years be the warmest year on record?

Longbets series: will the annual average temperature anomaly above the 1850-1899 baseline be 2.0C or higher by 2037?

23%

Before 2100, will there be a 5-year period with an average global temperature >3.6˚C warmer than the 1861-1880 baseline?

20%