Question

Will 2022 be warmer than 2021?

Resolved :Yes96%

35 comments35

Total Forecasters270

Community Prediction96% (90% - 99%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 96%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

43.1

Community Peer Score

4.2

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Authors:

casens

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

2022 Scott Alexander predictions

Future Perfect 2022 Series

Environment & Climate

2021-2025 Leaderboard

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Global warming

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

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Will the following years be the warmest year on record?

Longbets series: will the annual average temperature anomaly above the 1850-1899 baseline be 2.0C or higher by 2037?

23%

Before 2100, will there be a 5-year period with an average global temperature >3.6˚C warmer than the 1861-1880 baseline?

20%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

casens

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

2022 Scott Alexander predictions

Future Perfect 2022 Series

Environment & Climate

2021-2025 Leaderboard

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Global warming

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

The state of the Arctic: High temperatures, melting ice, fires and unprecedented emissions

NBC•Dec 11, 2024

24 disasters, $24 billion in damage: Assessing 2024's climate catastrophes

USA Today•Dec 13, 2024

Global forecast for 2025 sees temperatures falling back below 1.5°C

New Scientist•Dec 13, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the following years be the warmest year on record?

Longbets series: will the annual average temperature anomaly above the 1850-1899 baseline be 2.0C or higher by 2037?

23%

Before 2100, will there be a 5-year period with an average global temperature >3.6˚C warmer than the 1861-1880 baseline?

20%

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Will 2022 be warmer than 2021?

Make a Prediction

Will the following years be the warmest year on record?

Longbets series: will the annual average temperature anomaly above the 1850-1899 baseline be 2.0C or higher by 2037?

Before 2100, will there be a 5-year period with an average global temperature >3.6˚C warmer than the 1861-1880 baseline?

Comments

Will the following years be the warmest year on record?

Longbets series: will the annual average temperature anomaly above the 1850-1899 baseline be 2.0C or higher by 2037?

Before 2100, will there be a 5-year period with an average global temperature >3.6˚C warmer than the 1861-1880 baseline?

Will the following years be the warmest year on record?

Longbets series: will the annual average temperature anomaly above the 1850-1899 baseline be 2.0C or higher by 2037?

Before 2100, will there be a 5-year period with an average global temperature >3.6˚C warmer than the 1861-1880 baseline?

Will the following years be the warmest year on record?

Longbets series: will the annual average temperature anomaly above the 1850-1899 baseline be 2.0C or higher by 2037?

Before 2100, will there be a 5-year period with an average global temperature >3.6˚C warmer than the 1861-1880 baseline?