Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

Every year, Vox's Future Perfect team predicts what will happen in the year ahead. Metaculus is collaborating with Future Perfect writers like Dylan Matthews and Marina Bolotnikova to host their forecast questions so you can predict 2025 alongside them. Participate before January 1st when they publish their forecasts Vox.com.

Predict here — $2,500 in prizes

M

Question

Will any US state decriminalize or legalize a major psychedelic drug in 2022?

Resolved :Yes90%
18
36
Total Forecasters159
Community Prediction90% (79% - 94%)

Make a Prediction

50%
community: 90%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score
22.6
Community Peer Score
7.3
Learn more about scores here.
Authors:
casens
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
Future Perfect 2022 Series
2022 Scott Alexander predictions
Law
Politics
Health & Pandemics
Economy & Business
2021-2025 Leaderboard
Neuroscience
List of Schedule I drugs (US)
Chemistry
Medicine
Psychedelic therapy
Pharmacology
List of Schedule IV drugs (US)
Oregon
Psilocybin

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