Question

Will any US state decriminalize or legalize a major psychedelic drug in 2022?

Resolved :Yes

36 comments36

Total Forecasters159

Community Prediction90%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 90%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

22.6

Community Peer Score

7.3

median 90.0%mean 82.5%

Authors:

casens

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Future Perfect 2022 Series

2022 Scott Alexander predictions

List of Schedule I drugs (US)

List of Schedule IV drugs (US)

Oregon

Psilocybin

California

Trump plans to revoke many Biden policies. Where does that leave marijuana?

NPR Online News•Nov 12, 2024

Voters across the country decide on state ballot measures

FOX News•Nov 13, 2024

What did states vote for in November 2024?

American Thinker•Nov 13, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

How many US states will decriminalize psilocybin on January 1, 2027?

6.35

In how many of the 50 US states will it be legal to use psilocybin for therapy on December 31, 2025?

3.83

How many states will have legalized medical or recreational use of psilocybin before 2045?

24.2

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