Question

Will an AI be trained using an Avogadro's number of operations before the end of 2018?

Resolved :No40%

13 comments13

Total Forecasters141

Community Prediction40% (30% - 45%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 40%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

-11.4

Community Peer Score

13.4

Learn more about scores here.

Authors:

Anthony

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

AI Training and Compute

AI Technical Benchmarks

Artificial Intelligence

Language AIs in 2024: Size, guardrails and steps toward AI agents

The Conversation•Dec 20, 2024

OpenAI Upgrades Its Smartest AI Model With Improved Reasoning Skills

Wired•Dec 21, 2024

OpenAI's o3 model aced a test of AI reasoning – but it's still not AGI

New Scientist•Dec 21, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

What will be the highest estimated computation (in FLOP) used in large AI training runs by the following years?

2×10²⁵

Will the US government deem that an AI model has been trained with at least 1e26 FLOP before 2026?

93%

What will be the maximum compute (in petaFLOPS-days) ever used in training an AI experiment by the following dates?

6.07M

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Anthony

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

AI Training and Compute

AI Technical Benchmarks

Artificial Intelligence

Language AIs in 2024: Size, guardrails and steps toward AI agents

The Conversation•Dec 20, 2024

OpenAI Upgrades Its Smartest AI Model With Improved Reasoning Skills

Wired•Dec 21, 2024

OpenAI's o3 model aced a test of AI reasoning – but it's still not AGI

New Scientist•Dec 21, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

What will be the highest estimated computation (in FLOP) used in large AI training runs by the following years?

2×10²⁵

Will the US government deem that an AI model has been trained with at least 1e26 FLOP before 2026?

93%

What will be the maximum compute (in petaFLOPS-days) ever used in training an AI experiment by the following dates?

6.07M

Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

MetaculusM

Will an AI be trained using an Avogadro's number of operations before the end of 2018?

Make a Prediction

What will be the highest estimated computation (in FLOP) used in large AI training runs by the following years?

Will the US government deem that an AI model has been trained with at least 1e26 FLOP before 2026?

What will be the maximum compute (in petaFLOPS-days) ever used in training an AI experiment by the following dates?

Comments

What will be the highest estimated computation (in FLOP) used in large AI training runs by the following years?

Will the US government deem that an AI model has been trained with at least 1e26 FLOP before 2026?

What will be the maximum compute (in petaFLOPS-days) ever used in training an AI experiment by the following dates?

What will be the highest estimated computation (in FLOP) used in large AI training runs by the following years?

Will the US government deem that an AI model has been trained with at least 1e26 FLOP before 2026?

What will be the maximum compute (in petaFLOPS-days) ever used in training an AI experiment by the following dates?

What will be the highest estimated computation (in FLOP) used in large AI training runs by the following years?

Will the US government deem that an AI model has been trained with at least 1e26 FLOP before 2026?

What will be the maximum compute (in petaFLOPS-days) ever used in training an AI experiment by the following dates?