Question

Will an AI be trained using an Avogadro's number of operations before the end of 2018?

Resolved :No

13 comments13

Total Forecasters141

Community Prediction40%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 40%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

-11.4

Community Peer Score

13.4

median 40.0%mean 39.5%

Authors:

Anthony

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

AI Training and Compute

AI Technical Benchmarks

Artificial Intelligence

What will be the highest estimated computation (in FLOP) used in large AI training runs by the following years?

2×10²⁵

Will the US government deem that an AI model has been trained with at least 1e26 FLOP before 2026?

93%

What will be the maximum compute (in petaFLOPS-days) ever used in training an AI experiment by the following dates?

6.07M

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