Question

Will an AI be trained using an Avogadro's number of operations before the end of 2018?

Resolved :No

13 comments13

Total Forecasters141

Community Prediction40%

Make a Prediction

community: 40%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

-11.4

Community Peer Score

13.4

median 40.0%mean 39.5%

Authors:

Anthony

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

AI Training and Compute

AI Technical Benchmarks

Artificial Intelligence

Chemistry

Machine learning

Artificial intelligence

What will be the highest estimated computation (in FLOP) used in large AI training runs by the following years?

Will the US government deem that an AI model has been trained with at least 1e26 FLOP before 2026?

95%

What will be the maximum compute (in petaFLOPS-days) ever used in training an AI experiment by the following dates?

Comments

? comments