Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

Every year, Vox's Future Perfect team predicts what will happen in the year ahead. Metaculus is collaborating with Future Perfect writers like Dylan Matthews and Marina Bolotnikova to host their forecast questions so you can predict 2025 alongside them. Participate before January 1st when they publish their forecasts Vox.com.

Predict here — $2,500 in prizes

M

Question

Will Iran launch a medium, intermediate, or intercontinental range ballistic missile or a satellite between 16 and 23 May 2018?

Resolved :No1%
1
1
Total Forecasters46
Community Prediction1% (1% - 1%)

Make a Prediction

50%
community: 1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score
87.4
Community Peer Score
6.8
Learn more about scores here.
Authors:
IARPA Question Bot
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
IARPA 2018 Global Forecasting Challenge
Geopolitics
2018 Leaderboard
Iran
Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action

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