📖 The ACX 2025 Prediction Contest Is Open!

The Astral Codex Ten Prediction Contest is back with an expanded $10,000 prize pool! Test your forecasting skills across geopolitics, technology, economics, and more with questions curated by Scott Alexander. Make your predictions by January 31 to compete.

🔭 The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global — Feb 3

For the second year, Metaculus is teaming up with Bridgewater Associates to host a competition featuring $25k in prizes and potential opportunities with the asset management firm — and this year, forecasters from around the globe can compete.

Start here to register for the February 3rd competition, warm up on practice questions, and learn about the separate Open and Undergraduate leaderboards.

M

Question

How many seats will Democrats hold in the US Senate after 2022 midterm elections?

Resolved :5149.5
12
29
Total Forecasters143
Community Prediction49.5 (47.8 - 51.1)

Make a Prediction

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CDF

My Prediction
community
<30
lower 25%
median
upper 75%
>70
...
...
...
...
...
1.1%
47.84
49.48
51.1
0.7%

What was the final result?51

Community Baseline Score
71.4
Community Peer Score
19.9
Authors:
casens
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
2022 Scott Alexander predictions
Elections
2022 Leaderboard
2022 United States Senate elections
Kamala Harris
Democratic Party (US)
Republican Party (US)
United States
Joe Biden
US Senate

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