Question

Will Holden win his Bet with Zvi about Omicron, conditional on one of them winning?

Resolved :Yes

52 comments52

Total Forecasters136

Community Prediction98%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 98%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

33.5

Community Peer Score

20.1

median 98.0%mean 92.8%

Authors:

WilliamKiely

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that he will not be mistreated by George Mason University through the end of 2030?

75%

Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that the global temperature will not rise more than 0.05C between 2015 and 2029?

When, before April 27, 2025, will the KP lineage constitute less than 50% of the COVID-19 variants monitored in the US?

2024-12-09

Comments

? comments