Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

Every year, Vox's Future Perfect team predicts what will happen in the year ahead. Metaculus is collaborating with Future Perfect writers like Dylan Matthews and Marina Bolotnikova to host their forecast questions so you can predict 2025 alongside them. Participate before January 1st when they publish their forecasts Vox.com.

Predict here — $2,500 in prizes

M

Question

Will Iran announce it is enriching uranium above the 4.0% level before 23 May 2018?

Resolved :No2%
4
6
Total Forecasters21
Community Prediction2% (1% - 6%)

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50%
community: 2%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score
93.4
Community Peer Score
3.0
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Authors:
IARPA Question Bot
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
IARPA 2018 Global Forecasting Challenge
2018 Leaderboard
Iran
Energy
Nuclear program of Iran
Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action
United States
Enriched uranium
Sanctions against Iran

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