Question

Will Holden's Bet with Zvi about Omicron resolve ambiguously?

Resolved :No

13 comments13

Total Forecasters50

Community Prediction1%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

0.4

Community Peer Score

10.7

median 1.0%mean 12.9%

Authors:

WilliamKiely

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that the global temperature will not rise more than 0.05C between 2015 and 2029?

Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that he will not be mistreated by George Mason University through the end of 2030?

75%

When, before April 27, 2025, will the KP lineage constitute less than 50% of the COVID-19 variants monitored in the US?

2024-12-09

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