Question

Will cumulative reported deaths from Covid-19 in China exceed 50,000 before 2023?

Resolved :No

54 comments54

Total Forecasters165

Community Prediction1%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

54.0

Community Peer Score

23.5

median 1.0%mean 4.6%

Authors:

Charles

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Before 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections?

12%

How many reported COVID-19 deaths will occur (globally) in 2025?

158k

Will there be a novel pathogen that kills over 25 million people between 2022 and 2031 (inclusive)?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Charles

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

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Guardian•Nov 13, 2024

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Newsweek•Nov 13, 2024

Why did China censor reports of a deadly hit-and-run?

Spectator (UK)•Nov 14, 2024

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Before 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections?

12%

How many reported COVID-19 deaths will occur (globally) in 2025?

158k