Question

Will cumulative reported deaths from Covid-19 in China exceed 50,000 before 2023?

Resolved :No

54 comments54

Total Forecasters165

Community Prediction1%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

54.0

Community Peer Score

23.5

median 1.0%mean 4.6%

Authors:

Charles

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Before 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections?

12%

How many reported COVID-19 deaths will occur (globally) in 2025?

158k

Will there be a novel pathogen that kills over 25 million people between 2022 and 2031 (inclusive)?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Charles

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

China's push for more babies as demographic crisis deepens lacks real incentives, analysts say

CNBC•Nov 11, 2024

As China mourns, some question delay in release of information about deadly car attack

Guardian•Nov 13, 2024

Why China's Birth Rate Plans Aren't Working

Newsweek•Nov 13, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Before 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections?

12%

How many reported COVID-19 deaths will occur (globally) in 2025?

158k