Question

Will China execute or be targeted in an acknowledged national military attack before 1 September 2018?

Resolved :No1%

3 comments3

Total Forecasters126

Community Prediction1% (1% - 1%)

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50%

community: 1%

Did this actually happen?No

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96.9

Community Peer Score

6.7

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IARPA 2018 Global Forecasting Challenge

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China

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Will there be a military conflict resulting in at least 50 deaths between the United States and China in 2024?

0.1%

Will armed conflicts between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) lead to at least 100 deaths before 2026?

If China detonates a nuclear weapon offensively as a first use before 2035, will they have first officially renounced their “no first use” policy?

37.1%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

IARPA Question Bot

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

IARPA 2018 Global Forecasting Challenge

2018 Leaderboard

China

China is getting ready to take on Trump

Spectator (UK)•Dec 16, 2024

China's army releases hit list of US naval targets that would be attacked during potential conflict with America

Daily Mail•Dec 17, 2024

US Shares Update on China's Nuclear Arsenal

Newsweek•Dec 19, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will there be a military conflict resulting in at least 50 deaths between the United States and China in 2024?

0.1%

Will armed conflicts between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) lead to at least 100 deaths before 2026?

If China detonates a nuclear weapon offensively as a first use before 2035, will they have first officially renounced their “no first use” policy?

37.1%

Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

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Will China execute or be targeted in an acknowledged national military attack before 1 September 2018?

Make a Prediction

Will there be a military conflict resulting in at least 50 deaths between the United States and China in 2024?

Will armed conflicts between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) lead to at least 100 deaths before 2026?

If China detonates a nuclear weapon offensively as a first use before 2035, will they have first officially renounced their “no first use” policy?

Comments

Will there be a military conflict resulting in at least 50 deaths between the United States and China in 2024?

Will armed conflicts between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) lead to at least 100 deaths before 2026?

If China detonates a nuclear weapon offensively as a first use before 2035, will they have first officially renounced their “no first use” policy?

Will there be a military conflict resulting in at least 50 deaths between the United States and China in 2024?

Will armed conflicts between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) lead to at least 100 deaths before 2026?

If China detonates a nuclear weapon offensively as a first use before 2035, will they have first officially renounced their “no first use” policy?

Will there be a military conflict resulting in at least 50 deaths between the United States and China in 2024?

Will armed conflicts between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) lead to at least 100 deaths before 2026?

If China detonates a nuclear weapon offensively as a first use before 2035, will they have first officially renounced their “no first use” policy?