🔭 The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global — Feb 3

For the second year, Metaculus is teaming up with Bridgewater Associates to host a competition featuring $25k in prizes and potential opportunities with the asset management firm — and this year, forecasters from around the globe can compete.

Start here to register for the February 3rd competition, warm up on practice questions, and learn about the separate Open and Undergraduate leaderboards.

M

Question

Will the winner of the 2020 US Presidential election have been elected to any *other* previous significant political office?

Resolved :Yes54%
14
25
Total Forecasters174
Community Prediction54% (45% - 59%)

Make a Prediction

50%
community: 54%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score
16.7
Community Peer Score
13.1
Learn more about scores here.
Authors:
James
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
Elections
2016-2020 Leaderboard
US House of Representatives
Dwight D. Eisenhower
Mike Pence
Paul Ryan
Donald Trump
Vice President of the US
Governor
Elizabeth Warren
Oprah Winfrey

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