Question

Will the winner of the 2020 US Presidential election have been elected to any other previous significant political office?

Resolved :Yes

25 comments25

Total Forecasters174

Community Prediction54%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 54%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

16.7

Community Peer Score

13.1

median 54.0%mean 51.3%

Authors:

James

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Elections

US House of Representatives

Vice President of the US

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Al Jazeera•Nov 25, 2024

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PBS NewsHour•Nov 25, 2024

The Vice-Presidential Curse

New York Times•Nov 26, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the first female president of the United States enter office as a Republican?

12.7%

Will the Time person of the year in 2024 be the US president-elect?

80%

Will Trump win the 2024 presidential election and retain supreme executive power past 2028?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

James

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Elections

US House of Representatives

Vice President of the US

How big was Donald Trump’s 2024 election victory?

Al Jazeera•Nov 25, 2024

The size of Donald Trump’s 2024 election victory, explained in 5 charts

PBS NewsHour•Nov 25, 2024

The Vice-Presidential Curse

New York Times•Nov 26, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the first female president of the United States enter office as a Republican?

12.7%

Will the Time person of the year in 2024 be the US president-elect?

80%

Will the winner of the 2020 US Presidential election have been elected to any *other* previous significant political office?

Make a Prediction

Will the first female president of the United States enter office as a Republican?

Will the Time person of the year in 2024 be the US president-elect?

Will Trump win the 2024 presidential election and retain supreme executive power past 2028?

Comments

Will the first female president of the United States enter office as a Republican?

Will the Time person of the year in 2024 be the US president-elect?

Will Trump win the 2024 presidential election and retain supreme executive power past 2028?

Will the first female president of the United States enter office as a Republican?

Will the Time person of the year in 2024 be the US president-elect?

Will Trump win the 2024 presidential election and retain supreme executive power past 2028?

Will the first female president of the United States enter office as a Republican?

Will the Time person of the year in 2024 be the US president-elect?

Will Trump win the 2024 presidential election and retain supreme executive power past 2028?

Will the winner of the 2020 US Presidential election have been elected to any other previous significant political office?