Question

Will there be a locally-transmitted case of the Zika virus in Ukraine, Russia, Georgia or Armenia between 1 June 2018 and 31 August 2018?

Resolved :No

3 comments3

Total Forecasters86

Community Prediction1%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

89.3

Community Peer Score

8.9

median 1.0%mean 5.1%

Authors:

IARPA Question Bot

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Resolves:

IARPA 2018 Global Forecasting Challenge

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67%

Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine or Ukrainian-held territory before 2026?

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