Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

Every year, Vox's Future Perfect team predicts what will happen in the year ahead. Metaculus is collaborating with Future Perfect writers like Dylan Matthews and Marina Bolotnikova to host their forecast questions so you can predict 2025 alongside them. Participate before January 1st when they publish their forecasts Vox.com.

Predict here — $2,500 in prizes

M

Question

How many additional Eliciting Latent Knowledge prizes will be awarded?

Resolved :Above upper bound11.3
2
11
Total Forecasters18
Community Prediction11.3 (8.92 - 14.3)

Make a Prediction

My Prediction
community
lower 25%
median
upper 75%
>20
...
...
...
...
8.923
11.31
14.34
5.5%

What was the final result?Above upper bound

Community Baseline Score
-22.3
Community Peer Score
60.3
Learn more about scores here.
Authors:
RyanBeck
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
Artificial Intelligence
2022 Leaderboard
Psychology
Paul Christiano
John C. Maxwell

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