Question

Will Russia invade Ukraine before February 1, 2022?

Resolved :No

54 comments54

Total Forecasters239

Community Prediction10%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 10%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

76.0

Community Peer Score

9.2

median 10.0%mean 10.4%

Authors:

nextbigfuture

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Geopolitics

United Nations Security Council

Will Ukraine have de-facto control over the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts before January 1st, 2030?

Will Russia have significantly expanded its controlled territory in Ukraine on January 1, 2026?

25%

900+ Forecasters on Whether Russia Will Invade Ukraine

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