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🚀Metaculus Open-Source Rewrite is Live!

You're now enjoying a rewritten, open-source Metaculus, with a range of improvements and new opportunities for collaboration. Go here to learn more!

Question

How much better will the Metaculus Prediction be on continuous questions be, relative to the Community Prediction, over the 365-day period following its next update?

7
15
Total Forecasters21
Community Prediction1.01

Make a Prediction

My Prediction
community
<9e-1
lower 25%
median
upper 75%
>1.15
...
...
...
...
...
2.4%
9.94e-1
1.01
1.03
4.1%
Authors:
Tamay
Opened:
Closes:
Scheduled resolution:
Metaculus
Metaculus
Logarithmic scale

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