M

Question

How much better will the Metaculus Prediction be on continuous questions be, relative to the Community Prediction, over the 365-day period following its next update?

Total Forecasters22
Community Prediction1.01 (0.995 - 1.03)

Make a Prediction

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CDF

weight:
My Prediction
community
<0.95
lower 25%
median
upper 75%
>1.15
...
...
...
...
...
2.1%
0.995
1.011
1.032
3.6%
Authors:
Opened:Jan 17, 2022
Closes:May 26, 2025
Scheduled resolution:Mar 26, 2026

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