Question
How much better will the Metaculus Prediction be on continuous questions be, relative to the Community Prediction, over the 365-day period following its next update?
Total Forecasters23
Community Prediction1.02 (0.997 - 1.05)
Make a Prediction
CDF
weight:
| Lower bound | community | My Prediction |
| <0.95 | 1.9% | — |
| Quartiles | ||
| lower 25% | 0.9975 | — |
| median | 1.016 | — |
| upper 75% | 1.051 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >1.15 | 5.4% | — |
Authors:
Opened:Jan 17, 2022
Closes:May 26, 2025
Scheduled resolution:Mar 26, 2026
Comments
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Authors:
Opened:Jan 17, 2022
Closes:May 26, 2025
Scheduled resolution:Mar 26, 2026
