Question

Will Israel be the first country to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?

14 comments14

Total Forecasters64

Community Prediction38%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 38%

median 38.0%mean 37.5%

Authors:

stanulamstan

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

In vitro fertilisation

Polygenic score

Reproductive medicine

Hebrew University of Jerusalem

Tay–Sachs disease

Dor Yeshorim

Shimon Glick

Will Israel be one of the first ten countries to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?

78%

Will China be the first country to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?

15%

Will the USA be the first country to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

stanulamstan

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

In vitro fertilisation

Polygenic score

Reproductive medicine

Hebrew University of Jerusalem

Tay–Sachs disease

Dor Yeshorim

Shimon Glick

How the cost of IVF became a top election issue: Where do Trump and Harris stand?

USA Today•Nov 4, 2024

Mass production of genetically selected humans: inside a Pennsylvania pronatalist candidate’s fantasy city-state

Guardian•Nov 4, 2024

Inside the 'Superbaby Factory': Controversial startup is charging parents-to-be $50,000 to screen their embryos for higher IQ, investigation reveals

Daily Mail•Nov 5, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Israel be one of the first ten countries to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?

78%

Will China be the first country to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?

15%